With a largely underwhelming, and thus far, slow, group of three year-olds set to contest the 2016 Kentucky Derby, logical handicappers searching for a pick outside of the undefeated and likely highly-favored Nyquist may have already begun the hand-wringing process.
Those bettors would be well-served by erasing Mohaymen’s disappointing fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby from their short-term memories. While 7 of the last 11 Derby winners were victorious in their final prep races, Giacomo (2005), Street Sense (2007), Mine that Bird (2009), and Super Saver (2010) all avenged last-out losses on the first Saturday in May. Notably, Giacomo and Mine that Bird each finished a well-beaten fourth in their previous race, with both horses going on to improbable longshot wins at nearly identical odds of 50/1.
Certainly, the once-beaten Mohaymen has less to overcome than either Giacomo or Mine that Bird and won’t be a fraction of the price, but the gray son of Tapit may offer better than expected betting value as the public is sure to unfairly evaluate his poor run in the Florida Derby. Every horse deserves a mulligan, and in Mohaymen’s lone loss, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee ran too bad to be true over a drying racing surface he clearly didn’t care for.
With Beyer Speed Figures as good as any horse in the 2016 Kentucky Derby field and few upbeat workouts over the Churchill Downs racing strip, Mohaymen is a horse that should be included on the tickets of players looking to capitalize on value.
There will always be Kentucky Derby entrants that would be much better suited to skip the race entirely and find a better spot if not for the gusto of their well-meaning owners, but the Road to the Derby point qualifying system has been remarkably efficient at making the race more of a level-playing field since its inception four years ago.
On Saturday at Keeneland, the featured race is the $250,000 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes. Scheduled to be run at one mile on the turf, the Grade 2 event has drawn a field of eight colts and geldings.
On Friday at Oaklawn Park, the featured race is the $600,000 Apple Blossom Stakes. Restricted to fillies and mares, the Grade 1 event will be contested at a mile and a sixteenth on the main track and has drawn a field of six.
The Grade 1, $300,000 Madison Stakes features a stellar field April 9 at Keeneland as 13 fillies and mares are set to contest the seven furlong event on the main track.
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